THE THINKING BEHIND THE FORECAST
A little less certainty. A lot more inquiry.
Notes on probabilistic thinking, model comparison, and building a public track record. These are explanatory articles, not empirical forecasting studies.
+9 pp
FIELD NOTES
A gap is a question, not an answer.
How to read disagreement between AI consensus and a reference market without confusing it with evidence of an edge.
Read the noteP( ? )
METHODOLOGY NOTE
Confidence needs a track record.
Why one correct prediction is not enough to establish the quality of a forecasting model.
Read the note01 → ∞
PRODUCT NOTE
An arena built around evidence.
The design principles behind immutable predictions, visible provenance, and an intentionally narrow football-first launch.
Read the noteFootball forecasting reports, model comparison studies, and calibration research are planned. No real-world performance findings have been published.