PRODUCT NOTE
An arena built around evidence.
The design principles behind immutable predictions, visible provenance, and an intentionally narrow football-first launch.
Launch with one clear domain
Football offers intuitive outcomes and explicit match-resolution rules. Starting here lets the product make the relationship between probability, outcome, and score understandable before adding more categories.
Preserve what was known
A forecast is only useful as evidence when its model version, input snapshot, and creation time remain intact. The same principle applies when new data arrives: create another record rather than rewriting the first.
Separate the layers
Source observations, model inferences, market estimates, and editorial explanations have different roles. The interface labels each layer and makes the current sample-data boundary visible.
Earn broader coverage
Additional categories require credible sources and resolution policies. No launch dates or coverage claims are being made. The next milestone is a reviewed set of real, timestamped forecasts.
Sources and scope
This note describes our product design and sample framework; it reports no empirical findings. Read the full methodology for definitions, assumptions, and primary metric references. All numerical examples are illustrative.