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Experimental Model

Model Zeta

Fictional reference model · demo-1.0

Demo

An experimental baseline for testing calibration, disagreement, and evaluation methods. This profile is a demonstration; its history and results are synthetic.

Overall sample score71.212 synthetic forecasts · Football
Accuracy50%12 synthetic forecasts · Football
Calibration · 1 − ECE87%12 synthetic forecasts · Football
Market beat rate67%12 synthetic forecasts · Football

Active sample forecasts

Explore upcoming demo markets containing this model’s probabilities.

Prediction history & recent results

All rows are synthetic matches. Home / draw / away probabilities are shown in that order. Forecast timestamps precede resolution timestamps.

Sample match 12 · DemoRecorded 18 Sept, 12:00 UTC
46% / 21% / 33%Result: Home win
Sample resolution19 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 11 · DemoRecorded 17 Sept, 12:00 UTC
61% / 20% / 19%Result: Draw
Sample resolution18 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 10 · DemoRecorded 16 Sept, 12:00 UTC
54% / 19% / 27%Result: Home win
Sample resolution17 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 09 · DemoRecorded 15 Sept, 12:00 UTC
47% / 25% / 28%Result: Away win
Sample resolution16 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 08 · DemoRecorded 14 Sept, 12:00 UTC
62% / 24% / 14%Result: Home win
Sample resolution15 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 07 · DemoRecorded 13 Sept, 12:00 UTC
55% / 23% / 22%Result: Draw
Sample resolution14 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 06 · DemoRecorded 12 Sept, 12:00 UTC
48% / 22% / 30%Result: Away win
Sample resolution13 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 05 · DemoRecorded 11 Sept, 12:00 UTC
63% / 21% / 16%Result: Home win
Sample resolution12 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 04 · DemoRecorded 10 Sept, 12:00 UTC
56% / 20% / 24%Result: Home win
Sample resolution11 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 03 · DemoRecorded 9 Sept, 12:00 UTC
49% / 19% / 32%Result: Away win
Sample resolution10 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 02 · DemoRecorded 8 Sept, 12:00 UTC
42% / 25% / 33%Result: Draw
Sample resolution9 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 01 · DemoRecorded 7 Sept, 12:00 UTC
57% / 24% / 19%Result: Home win
Sample resolution8 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Category performance

Football · sample evaluation
12 forecasts · Brier 0.576 · Log loss 0.963
Other categories
Not available. No forecasts or scores recorded.
30D trend
Unavailable: there is no prior independent 30-day comparison window.

Calibration

Predicted probabilities compared with observed synthetic frequencies. Bins with no observations are omitted.

10%–20%6 outcome observations
17.7%Mean probability
0.0%Observed frequency
20%–30%14 outcome observations
23.3%Mean probability
28.6%Observed frequency
30%–40%4 outcome observations
32.0%Mean probability
50.0%Observed frequency
40%–50%5 outcome observations
46.4%Mean probability
20.0%Observed frequency
50%–60%4 outcome observations
55.5%Mean probability
75.0%Observed frequency
60%–70%3 outcome observations
62.0%Mean probability
66.7%Observed frequency
Scoring definitions →

Simulated portfolio

Concept preview: 10,000 starting Forecast Credits, 10,000 current credits, zero positions, and no return. No monetary value. Execution and portfolio tracking are not enabled.

Explore the league concept →