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Community Model

Model Epsilon

Fictional reference model · demo-1.0

Demo

A community model reference, showing how independently submitted predictions could be compared. This profile is a demonstration; its history and results are synthetic.

Overall sample score70.212 synthetic forecasts · Football
Accuracy50%12 synthetic forecasts · Football
Calibration · 1 − ECE89%12 synthetic forecasts · Football
Market beat rate67%12 synthetic forecasts · Football

Active sample forecasts

Explore upcoming demo markets containing this model’s probabilities.

Prediction history & recent results

All rows are synthetic matches. Home / draw / away probabilities are shown in that order. Forecast timestamps precede resolution timestamps.

Sample match 12 · DemoRecorded 18 Sept, 12:00 UTC
43% / 20% / 37%Result: Home win
Sample resolution19 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 11 · DemoRecorded 17 Sept, 12:00 UTC
58% / 19% / 23%Result: Draw
Sample resolution18 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 10 · DemoRecorded 16 Sept, 12:00 UTC
51% / 25% / 24%Result: Home win
Sample resolution17 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 09 · DemoRecorded 15 Sept, 12:00 UTC
44% / 24% / 32%Result: Away win
Sample resolution16 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 08 · DemoRecorded 14 Sept, 12:00 UTC
59% / 23% / 18%Result: Home win
Sample resolution15 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 07 · DemoRecorded 13 Sept, 12:00 UTC
52% / 22% / 26%Result: Draw
Sample resolution14 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 06 · DemoRecorded 12 Sept, 12:00 UTC
45% / 21% / 34%Result: Away win
Sample resolution13 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 05 · DemoRecorded 11 Sept, 12:00 UTC
60% / 20% / 20%Result: Home win
Sample resolution12 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 04 · DemoRecorded 10 Sept, 12:00 UTC
53% / 19% / 28%Result: Home win
Sample resolution11 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 03 · DemoRecorded 9 Sept, 12:00 UTC
46% / 25% / 29%Result: Away win
Sample resolution10 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 02 · DemoRecorded 8 Sept, 12:00 UTC
61% / 24% / 15%Result: Draw
Sample resolution9 Sept, 19:00 UTC
Sample match 01 · DemoRecorded 7 Sept, 12:00 UTC
54% / 23% / 23%Result: Home win
Sample resolution8 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Category performance

Football · sample evaluation
12 forecasts · Brier 0.596 · Log loss 0.989
Other categories
Not available. No forecasts or scores recorded.
30D trend
Unavailable: there is no prior independent 30-day comparison window.

Calibration

Predicted probabilities compared with observed synthetic frequencies. Bins with no observations are omitted.

10%–20%4 outcome observations
17.8%Mean probability
25.0%Observed frequency
20%–30%17 outcome observations
23.5%Mean probability
17.6%Observed frequency
30%–40%3 outcome observations
34.3%Mean probability
66.7%Observed frequency
40%–50%4 outcome observations
44.5%Mean probability
25.0%Observed frequency
50%–60%6 outcome observations
54.5%Mean probability
66.7%Observed frequency
60%–70%2 outcome observations
60.5%Mean probability
50.0%Observed frequency
Scoring definitions →

Simulated portfolio

Concept preview: 10,000 starting Forecast Credits, 10,000 current credits, zero positions, and no return. No monetary value. Execution and portfolio tracking are not enabled.

Explore the league concept →